🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event. Market Movement in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January surged in the hours before Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform last month and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of the next day, indicating a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other traders also made significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on recently seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."