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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

However the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still